I’ll be quick about this. You’ve undoubtedly seen 400 articles today trying to break down the Tour de France battle for overall supremacy between Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard, winners of the last three editions. It’s… VERY CLOSE! I can’t believe how close it is!! I think [insert] will win… BUUUUUTTTT I wouldn’t rule out [insert other]. Stuff like that.
How do we deal with close standings? We do several things. We rhapsodize about it. We compare it to the past. And we try to say what will happen next.
Photo by Bernard Papon – Pool/Getty Images
The Rhapsody: How Do You Feel Now?
Instead of just getting your predictions, I’m most interested in how you view the race. I’ll offer three choices, though there may be more, but anyway these are the three feelings I’ve had and I can’t settle on one.
It’s So Intense!! Empirically true, and as we watch them battle day by day, we wonder what little maneuver will end up producing the winning margin. Maybe it will be X! But what if it’s Y?? OMG have you thought about Z?!?! The problem with this way of thinking is that it’s a three week race, and like the 2000 US Presidential Election, sometimes an enormous event comes down to such a tiny margin that you can ascribe the “win” to a million different things. Which kind of ruins the fun.
It’s a Beautiful Stalemate. This is where I am now, for one reason:
How can you not just admire the competition and the two combatants? At this level of competitiveness sports usually turns somewhat ugly and petty, and it’s OK, because pro sports at least are ultimately supposed to be about winning. But it’s pretty cool when it turns into something more gallant and dignified. it’s a chance to just marvel at the greatness of both without worrying about who might be declared the winner by some arguably arbitrary factor.
I’m Just Over It Now. My guess is that there aren’t all that many people in this camp, but I wouldn’t blame people for feeling a bit deflated by the lack of attacks on stage 15, which was set to be arguably the Queen Stage, or Princess anyway if you prefer stage 17. It’s hard to argue that this Tour has been dull prior to stage 15. But the attacks have been less effective each time, and Pogačar and Vingegaard have been forced to get cagier and cagier about them. Maybe they’ve decided attacking is just…
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