How much can I raise my FTP this winter?

With winter around the corner, you may be thinking, 2025 is my year! You may also be paying attention to one key number: FTP (Functional Threshold Power). This metric measures the highest average power output you can sustain for an hour and is crucial for setting training goals and intensities. As the colder months keep us indoors more often, the question arises: how much can you realistically improve your FTP over the winter season? Whether you’re gearing up for next year’s races or want to tackle spring group rides stronger, it’s worth finding out.

FTP gains depend on several factors

Peter Glassford, of Consummate Athlete, says that the potential for improving your FTP during winter training depends on a few key factors—especially your current fitness level and the time you’re willing to invest.

“For a beginner, it’s a bit like starting with a blank slate. They might be able to increase their FTP by as much as 20 per cent with consistent training over the winter months,” Glassford notes. “That could mean going from around 100 watts to 200 watts, especially if they’ve just started working on cadence and gearing. For more experienced riders, though, a 5-10 per cent gain might be more realistic.”

Some factors are beyond control

Glassford also highlights that while time and effort play significant roles, there are elements you can’t control. “Genetics are a part of it—some people are naturally predisposed to higher power outputs,” he says. “But beyond that, it’s also about how much time you can dedicate to training. I personally had a higher FTP when I was training a lot, but now that I’m not as committed, it’s come down.”

This makes winter the perfect time for a dedicated focus on FTP. As outdoor conditions push riders inside, structured sessions can fill the training gaps. But Glassford stresses that the gains are proportional to how much work you’re willing to put in. “For someone who’s already fit, aiming for a 5-10 per cent increase over the winter is a good goal,” he says. “So, if your FTP is around 250 watts, you might push it to 275 by the time spring arrives.”

Still try to ride outside

As much as indoor trainers are a winter staple, Glassford recommends testing your FTP in the conditions you plan to race or ride in once the snow melts (if there is any.) “If you’re a gravel racer, do a test on gravel. If you’re a roadie, test on the road when you can,” he advises. “Even if it’s…