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route, contenders and prediction – Rouleur

Il Lombardia 2025 profile

Il Lombardia — the Race of the Falling Leaves — stands as cycling’s final Monument, where autumn’s fading light casts long shadows over brutal climbs and narrow roads. Its late-season place demands riders summon their last reserves, blending fatigue and ambition in a tactical battle that often decides the year’s enduring narratives. This year represents an opportunity for the record number of wins — held by Italian legend Fausto Coppi — to be equalled by a rider of similar notoriety: Tadej Pogačar. 

Route

The 2025 Il Lombardia route runs 241km from Como to Bergamo, with over 4,400m of climbing. After the early ascent of Madonna del Ghisallo, the race weaves along Lake Como before hitting a punishing sequence of climbs in the Bergamo province: Roncola (up to 17%), Berbenno, Dossena, Zambla Alta, and Passo di Ganda. A fast descent to Selvino precedes a final 9km run-in, capped by a steep cobbled ramp through Bergamo. It’s a relentless, tactical route — perfect for climbers with strong descending and positioning skills.

Contenders

Tadej Pogačar

The four-time Tour de France winner, two-time world champion, and double victor at the Tour of Flanders is the perennial favourite for any major race and Il Lombardia is the UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider’s most profitable hunting ground, as he has come away with the last four titles on the trot. The Slovenian has turned the Race of the Falling Leaves into his personal theatre of dominance, with its hilly parcours perfectly suiting his attributes. After a commanding season at the Tour and one-day races alike, Pogačar arrives razor-sharp, driven by form and history. No one can match his punch on the climbs, so it’s hard to imagine anyone dethroning him of his crown. 

Pogačar

Pogačar on his way to his second world title (Image: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)

Remco Evenepoel

Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quickstep) returns to Il Lombardia with unfinished business. The memory of his harrowing 2020 crash still lingers on the descent of the Muro di Sormano, but the Belgian has since matured into a complete rider — with a number of major wins since that day, including World Championships and Olympic road races and time trials. This is a race that suits him: long, selective, tactically complex. In Pogačar, he faces a rival who has made this Monument his own, but Evenepoel is definitely the closest to toppling the Slovenian.

Evenepoel

Evenepoel at the Tour of Britain in September (Image: Bruce…

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