Today in Succinct Updates to Succinct Previews… remember before the Tour when I said that someone will go chasing after the KOM jersey aaaand… not much else? Well, we have the blanks filled in now, and it’s pretty much the single most explosive, exciting aspect of the Tour de France!
Backing up, I also predicted before the Tour that the white and green jerseys were sewn up, while the yellow was going to be a see-saw battle to the end. I was right about white, and at best half-right by accident about green, where that too is a done deal, but rather than Wout Van Aert (dominating for years on end) it’s actually Jasper Philipsen who has the points honors sewn up. And as to yellow, well, it was a fun battle while it lasted. Also Jumbo have a 27-minute lead in the teams comp. Gotta think that’s a wrap too.
But the battle for the Tour’s most fun jersey rages on! Maybe! Here are the relevant standings:
- Giulio Ciccone, Lidl-Trek, 88 points
- Felix Gall, AG2R, 82
- Jonas Vingegaard, Jumbo, 81
- Neilson Powless, EF Education, 58
- Everyone else, out of contention
Basically you have four theoretical combatants who, in order, are highly motivated, questionably motivated, probably indifferent, and would be extremely motivated if there were a chance. Let’s go in reverse order.
Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images
Powless: We know how much he enjoyed wearing the jersey for most of the first two weeks of the Tour, and you can bet anything he’d love to have it back. Can he find 31 points? Yes! But it would rely on Ciccone being asleep at the wheel. There are three cat-2 climbs (5 points to the winner), one cat 3 (2 points) and two cat-1s (10 points max), which puts 37b points out there to anyone who can win every single joust along the way. I would bet my one remaining intact fibula that Powless will join the early break on Saturday, because it would be malpractice not to get up there and give it a go. But he would need a group of at least 6 riders, none of whom is Ciccone or Gall, to have a chance. Prediction: No bueno.
Vingegaard: Hmm… I think he has to try. For starters, he actually is the best climber here, and with no remaining concern over his main objective, can he afford to just walk away from a prize that comes with a check for €25,000? Tour winners tend to spread cash around to their helpers and this extra money would get passed…
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