Will the sprinters again dominate at the Tour de France on Tuesday’s fast finish on the Nogaro motor racing circuit? Probably.
Can anyone beat them with a late attack? Perhaps.
US national champion Quinn Simmons took on the sprinters in a similar situation on the Autódromo de Villicum during the Vuelta a San Juan in January and won the stage with a smash and grab power attack. But of course the sprinters and their teams will be working hard to keep control of stage 4.
The 181.8km stage from Dax to Nogaro includes just one fourth category climb and cuts across the flat roads of the Gers department of the Occitania region, on the plains that look up to the Pyrenees. It will be hot but probably not windy.
The finish is very different to the roundabout-strewn roads and chicane finish in Bayonne. The last 3.1km are on the Paul Armagnac circuit, used more often for motor racing than bike racing.
It will offer what the sprinters will describe as a ‘super fast’ finish. There is little elevation on the circuit and the corners are fast, wide, sweeping and parabolic.
There will be no need to touch brakes in the final kilometres, instead giant chainrings and a perfect high-power lead out will be vital.
The Nogaro motor racing circuit was last used in a race during the 2017 Route du Sud when EF Education-EasyPost’s Tom Scully won from the breakaway, just holding off Elia Viviani and Bryan Coquard as the sprinters almost caught them.
That day perhaps led to the 2023 Tour de France stage in Nogaro.
Jasper Philipsen won the first sprint of the Tour in Bayonne on stage 3 thanks to a superb lead out from Jonas Rickaert and then Mathieu van der Poel, who dragged his teammate up to the chicane finish, dropping home off at the perfect point to dive to the final corner on the front.
The run in on the Paul Armagnac circuit in Nogaro on stage 4 provides a contrast, as the final 750 metres are dead straight and the seven curves on the 3.1km motor racing circuit are all fast and sweeping.
It suits a powerful leadout, with perhaps Soudal-Quickstep having the muscle to lead out Fabio Jakobsen, Jayco-AlUla to set-up Dylan Groenewegen or Alpecin-Deceuninck to do it again for Philipsen.
The likes of Caleb Ewan (Lotto Soudal), or perhaps Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan), could also have a late burst of speed in their legs in sight of the line just as they did in Bayonne.
Ewan kicked from behind and moved up when the road was clear ahead of him but the NTT Tour de France data…
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