Minutes after he had reached the summit finish of Sierra Nevada, Remco Evenepoel stated in no uncertain terms that he could only be satisfied with the current state of the standings at the Vuelta a España. It was hard to disagree.
Yet while Evenepoel’s road to landing Belgium’s first Grand Tour victory since Johan De Muynck won the 1978 Giro seems increasingly smooth, multiple potential obstacles remain, and the Vuelta’s long history of last-minute debacles for seemingly strong GC leaders is only one of them.
On the considerable plus side for Evenepoel, he heads towards western Andalucía and the start of the third week in the coastal town of Sanlucar de Barrameda with a 1:34 lead on his closest rival, Primož Roglič (Jumbo-Visma), and 2:01 on the rider running third, Enric Mas (Movistar).
His overall advantage of nearly five minutes on Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates) in fourth place means that only Roglič and Mas have any realistic chance of turning the tables in the final six stages of the battle for outright victory. In a Grand Tour often decided by seconds, not minutes, Evenepoel’s advantage over the two riders closest to him may not be huge, but it is still considerable.
There are other factors in his favour, starting with the route. The toughest stages of the Vuelta are behind Evenepoel, and the big incognito of how he might respond to racing at altitude was resolved in his favour at Sierra Nevada. And it will, in any case, not be an issue again in the three remaining summit finishes.
None of those finales – at Monasterio de Tentudia on Wednesday, Alto del Piornal on Thursday, and Navacerrada on Saturday – are in any way as steep as the slopes of La Pandera, where Evenepoel suffered his one clear off day in the Vuelta to date on stage 14. This should be yet another boost to Evenepoel’s motivation.
Last but by no means least is his current form and ability to stay cool under fire. Even if he could not respond to Roglič’s lurching acceleration on La Pandera and his probing attack at Sierra Nevada, Evenepoel did not panic on either day, but found his own pace and stuck to it. Winning Grand Tours is as much about handling bad days as making the most of good ones. Dealing with those potential crisis moments without losing the plot speaks volumes about how quickly and effectively Evenepoel is learning to be an overall contender in this year’s Vuelta.
When it comes to the climbs, if there are few questions about Evenepoel’s form despite his slight loss…
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