One of the biggest appeals of one-day Classics, compared to stage racing, are their unpredictability. But as for who will emerge the strongest on Saturday’s 253km trek from the fogbound plains of Bergamo to the hills of Como, Il Lombardia always seems to be enshrouded in a extra level of uncertainty.
The reason is simple: Il Lombardia’s date in the cycling calendar. A large percentage of riders will spend months building their form for Paris-Roubaix or the Tour of Flanders.
But by this point in the season, holidays are looming for the majority of the peloton, retirement is but one race away for others, and for an unfortunate few, the search for a new contract for next year is still continuing. They almost all have one thing in common though: after eight months of hard racing, come the fifth Monument of the season, virtually everybody is running on fumes.
Thus the number of riders likely to tie a knot in their season with Il Lombardia’s final double loop of the San Fermo della Battaglia and the Civiglio climbs, rather than head for the team bus the first time round is never high, and the previous total number of finishers bear that out. Of 175 starters in last year’s Il Lombardia, just 107 completed. In 2020, 86. In 2019, 109. 2022 will likely prove no different.
On the other end of the scale, a few household cycling names are clearly ending their year in great condition and, either before they pull down the curtain on their season or in fact on their entire career, still have points to prove and races to win. And Il Lombardia is the one WorldTour opportunity left in 2022, or perhaps the one opportunity left at all, where they can do that.
But it’s worth remembering, too, that a good final performance or victory in a season often plants the seeds of a strong start next year too. Riders often talk about how it provides an extra layer of motivation for winter training or a psychological boost to hit the ground running next spring. In that sense, at Il Lombardia, as the leaves of northern Italy fall down around the last Monument of the season, things are only just beginning.
There are multiple reasons why Pogačar is the key reference point in this year’s Il Lombardia. In the short-term his win earlier this week in the very hilly Tre Valli Varesine and second place in the Giro dell’Emilia, the two warm-up races par excellence for Il Lombardia, indicate…
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