On the day Tadej Pogačar sent Primož Roglič sprawling to the canvas atop La Planche des Belles at the end of the 2020 Tour de France, he became his sport’s undisputed heavyweight champion. In almost every outing since, he has seemed to produce dizzying combinations that left even the doughtiest of opponents feeling punch drunk. He has had close to an unblemished record in stage racing over the past two years, with eight overall victories from his last nine, and seemingly no real challenger in sight.
But now, just as Pogačar’s dominance was becoming monotonous, Jonas Vingegaard has emerged as the Frazier to his Ali. The Dane already performed the rare feat of laying a glove on Pogačar when he briefly distanced him atop Mont Ventoux en route to second overall on last year’s Tour, but that warning shot came long after a boxing referee would already have stopped the fight. An unbloodied Pogačar still reached Paris with a lead of more than five minutes over Vingegaard.
This time around, Vingegaard has successfully weathered Pogačar’s onslaught in the opening week of the Tour and then delivered a pivotal knockdown on the Col du Granon to take the yellow jersey off his shoulders. Since moving into the overall lead, Vingegaard dealt comfortably with Pogačar’s jabs on the Alpe d’Huez and the Col de la Croix Neuve, rounds that most judges would have scored in the Dane’s favour.
The overall standings tell their own story as the Tour enters its final week, with Vingegaard carrying a lead of 2:22 over Pogačar. Nobody, not even Pogačar himself, could argue that Vingegaard hasn’t been full value for that advantage. The time was all amassed in a dizzying 5km atop the Granon, but the damage was already done by his Jumbo-Visma team’s all-out assault over the Télégraphe and Galibier.
Vingegaard’s Jumbo-Visma guard initially looked equipped to marshal him all the way to Paris in yellow, but his defences have been diminished considerably by the abandons of Roglič and Steven Kruijswijk on Sunday. Jumbo-Visma, like Pogačar’s UAE Team Emirates, are now down to just six riders. Despite the gifts of Wout van Aert and Sepp Kuss, this Tour looks increasingly like a head-to-head contest between its two heaviest hitters. Or, as Pogačar’s manager Mauro Gianetti put it: “The race will be decided between the leaders in the big climbs.”
Before the Tour began, Pogačar would undoubtedly have accepted those terms of engagement. In 2020, after all,…
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