The 2025 Vuelta a España begins in Italy on Saturday and includes a mountain finish on stage to Limone Piemonte but I expect we’ll need seven days of racing to find out if Jonas Vingegaard can live up to his billing as the number one favourite.
The new more explosive Jonas will be well suited to the steep ramps that the final Grand Tour of the season always serves up but the mountain stages in the Pyrenees will reveal any cracks in his and everyone else’s GC armoury. The battle for overall victory will then play out in week two and week three, hopefully lasting all the way until stage 20 atop Bola del Mundo near Madrid.
As far as individual capabilities are concerned the Dane has an edge on his direct Vuelta rivals when it comes to climbing and time trialling. He might even outsprint the other leaders if it comes down to a tough finish. His two Tour de France victories and his fights with Tadej Pogačar put Vingegaard a level above everyone but the absence of Pogačar will not make victory and the next three weeks of racing a formality. It won’t be for a number of reasons.
The fuss about GC Kuss isn’t that long ago and it could happen again, perhaps this time at UAE. A surprise challenger usually emerges at the Vuelta and best illustrated by the performances of Ben O’Connor in 2024. The Australian has the knack of sneaking into an escape that shakes-up the overall standings. He could do it again this year.
There’s also bound to be some new, or even renewed, GC talents who came into the race with few mentions. The Vuelta is third Grand Tour of the season, when riders are tired, about to change teams or looking to save their careers. Its unpredictability is its beauty.
Without the presence of Pogačar, Visma find themselves in the reverse of the situation they had at the Tour de France. Now it’s their turn to have one leader and one simple strategy.
Vingegaard is the only designated leader, while UAE have Joâo Almeida and Juan Ayuso as joint leaders. Theoretically either Matteo Jorgensen or Sepp Kuss could be bumped up to joint leader status but I think both…
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