It’s finally Tour de France Week! And there are a million articles out there about the race, because everyone has discovered how cool this is… 18 years after we got in this business. But! What the other publications can offer in repetitive, obligatory content — will it be the last guy OR! the GUY BEFORE THAT!??? — I can break down for you so, so much more efficiently. This is what 17 years of Tour previews gets you: the ability to stop talking.
So here goes.
General Classification
We all know that it starts out as a coin flip between the ultimate Tour prodigy, Tadej Pogačar, and the one guy who has been able to hold him off, Jonas Vingegaard. If they both stay on their bikes and are able to be their best selves, then it’s just whoever is a little more than the other.
In the past we have at least had somewhat intriguing comparisons to make. Could Nairo (or his team) find a way to not ship three minutes before they reach the first climb? Would Jan drop enough weight? Can one of the Schlecks figure out how to do a time trial?
Photo by Dario Belingheri/Getty Images
Not so this time. Both Pogs and Vingo are good at everything, and so are their teams. Maybe you can pick out one factor that favors one guy — what if they are completely even except for Pogs’ last 50 meters finishing kick? What if the lowered ITT kms nudges it more toward Jonas? But you are just speculating and it’s frankly not that interesting to wonder about. Don’t get me wrong, it will be completely gripping to watch — but for now there isn’t much to say.
Except this: if Pogačar wins, in a season where he also has finished off a Ronde van Vlaanderen victory, it will pair nicely with last year, where he was the other guy at the end of both Tours, only to see his rival out-execute him. Which would tell us what we always knew: you are what your Ronde van Vlaanderen result says you are.
Photo by Dario Belingheri/Getty Images
Points and Young Rider Jerseys
Both of these are already so in the bag that you wonder how many versions ASO even bothered to print. The Bilbao stage, with some short, sharp climbing pretty close to the finish, suggests that they might not have bothered to print more than one of each. Because the odds of someone taking Points…
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