With the 2023 Tour de France route now officially published in Paris, speculation will rapidly begin to mount on whether Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) will repeat his 2022 victory, if Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) can sweep back into power or if a completely different favourite arises in next year’s race.
Memories of last July are still fresh, of course, and given the 2022 Tour was widely rated as one of the most spectacular in recent history, that only adds to the uncertainty – in a good way.
To recap very briefly, Vingegaard’s ability to dislodge a seemingly unstoppable Pogačar from power tore up the predicted script with a vengeance. Pogačar’s bounce back in the third week was quelled by a ferociously strong Jumbo-Visma team (even when lacking an injured Primoz Roglic) captained by Wout Van Aert and Vingegaard in person. But COVID-19 was stalking through the peloton, too, making the GC battle even more unpredictable as the contenders’ teams, most notably UAE but others as well, lost rider after rider.
And what’s in store for 2023? The almost unprecedented presence of high mountain stages in every week of the route, combined with a dearth of time trialling – and what little there is, has an uphill slant – will favour the out-and-out climbers over the all-rounders. But so much mountain climbing at so many different points will make it hard to predict where exactly the race will burst into life, and thus make calculating strength even more crucial than usual.
As for the riders, while Vingegaard will be pushing for a second title, and this route certainly isn’t unfavourable to him, Pogačar’s determination to regain his lost Tour crown cannot be doubted. But that is equally true of 2019 winner Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers). And there’s a constantly increasing number of teams and riders who want in on the yellow jersey battle.
Belgium is collectively holding its breath over what Remco Evenepoel (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl) might achieve in his possible Tour debut, for one thing, while Primoz Roglič (Jumbo-Visma) is determined to put his ultra-difficult 2022 Grand Tour season behind him. Squads like Bora-Hansgrohe, AG2R Citröen, Groupama-FDJ, EF Education-EasyPost, Movistar and BikeExchange-Jayco will all have their big hitters in play as well. But as Roglič and Pogačar both know to their cost from recent Tours, nothing can be taken for granted before Paris. After 2022, it’s hard to avoid the sensation that anything really could happen…
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