Five Questions On Tour Rest Day #2 (of 3)

Can Tadej Pogačar Stand the Heat?

This is everyone’s favorite topic, but Pogs is pushing back today on the idea that he is at a disadvantage in the heat. How do we know he has a problem? Doesn’t everyone suffer in the heat? Is Vingegaard so great on hot days? All perfectly reasonable defenses.

Except that this excellent CyclingTips article from before the Tour, before we all got worked up about this subject, contained some nice clues. First, yes, the one data point we have is last year’s Ventoux stage, which everyone knows about because Vingegaard put some time into Pogs. So there is that.

But in the article Pogačar himself seems to admit what he is denying today. There, he said he suffers a bit more in the heat and cracked a little bit last year. Also he is quoted on several occasions from past years about how he has an advantage in the cold weather. Is the corollary true? We will find out.

I suspect Pogs will be fine Tuesday and Wednesday, but by Thursday anyone who doesn’t like the heat will surely show it. That’s the Alpe d’Huez stage, vying with Wednesday for Queen Stage honors — see Will’s Mountains Preview — and will be the hottest day of this week (with even worse to come next week). The cumulative climbing and suffering in the heat will crack anyone who doesn’t like that sort of thing, which might be everyone, but the Tour will be a lot different if it’s Pogs and not Jonas. So don’t jump to conclusions about this one right away.

Who Is Your Favorite Sleeper Pick?

We are mostly talking about the overall competition as a two-man race, but riders 3-10 are all pretty tightly ranked for a race that’s about to reach the high mountains, and you can’t dismiss anyone’s chances just yet. I’ve got three names, in order: Adam Yates, Primož Roglič, and David Gaudu. Wrong Yates has looked right a lot lately, exactly where he needs to be, like a guy biding his time. The INEOS flood the field thing is not nothing, if they can ever put Pogs under any real pressure. I believe in his climbing more than Thomas, though check back Wednesday.

Rogs hardly needs discussion; he was almost a co-favorite to start with and only shipped two minutes thanks to terrible luck. The reason to get excited is that you can tell Pogs is very focused on Vingegaard, so there is real potential for some one-two action that puts Pogs on the defensive— if Rogs is feeling really good. Gaudu is the guy on the ascent, career-wise, only 25 and still…