French legend Cyrille Guimard has measured out his life with Classic seasons. And he knows who is supposed to win them. The cobbled Monuments belong to a certain type of rider: a big, powerful watt monster.
In recent years, it’s been a guy like Mathieu van der Poel. Guimard, a former pro who famously mentored Bernard Hinault, Greg LeMond and Laurent Fignon, has been in the sport for decades. In a recent column for cyclismactu, he says the kind of rider who wins Roubaix grew up on narrow farm roads and bad surfaces.
Which is why Tadej Pogačar doesn’t quite fit the script.
And yet, here he is. He took second last year, after a crash foiled a chance to duke it out with van der Poel on the velodrome. He’s not supposed to be up there in a race like that. Fillipo Ganna, Mads Pedersen, Wout van Aert–it’s for them.
Another impossible win?
But Pogačar has a way of dragging races onto his terms. He’s won four Monuments so far, and all that is left (along with A Vuelta a España win) to fill out his palmarès is a win at the Hell of the North.
That’s what makes this edition so exciting. Not just whether he can survive Roubaix, but whether he can take a seemingly impossible dub. it. If he’s there in the final, the usual logic starts to fall apart. And he seems to specialize in doing the impossible, doesn’t he?
Just Roubaix and the Vuelta stand between Pogačar and history
Long solo breakaways–or more recently, an incredible win at Milan-San Remo, where a crash just before the Cipressa didn’t change his plans. Somehow, he caught back on, even as the teams were doing tempo. Somehow, he got to the front. Somehow, he attacked and got away. And somehow, he won.
The chaos of Paris-Roubaix
Guimard isn’t ready to say it’s inevitable that he wins Roubaix. It’s not just about being the strongest, or smartest. Roubaix is too chaotic for that. One crash, one puncture, and the whole thing unravels. It’s why the idea of sweeping all five Monuments in a single season still feels out of reach.
Still, who knows anymore.
“If he wins all five,” Guimard said, “then he should go on vacation and let the others try.”
There’s a bit of humour in it, sure. But not much. The other riders might like to not feel like they are racing for second, for once.
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