As Monuments go, Milan-San Remo is unique. It’s a long, drawn-out route, and yet it’s all about the final. Take the Tour of Flanders, for example, there’s possibly 10 sections of the course where you can blow the race apart and tee up victory – whereas here, you’ve got one, possibly two, in the closing stages. Some riders would like to try something earlier to get the win, or even just a podium spot, but unfortunately, you have to wait until the very end to see what you can do.
Having won La Classicissima twice during my career, and finished inside the top 10 in seven other editions, I know better than most that it all comes down to who you are and how good you are at that moment.
Of course, for the men’s race this year, Tadej Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel are the two big favourites. I expect the Slovenian to throw everything he’s got at Saturday’s race, because it’s both the race he wants to win the most right now, but also the hardest race for him to win, too, given his current competition.
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Van der Poel, having seen him in action at Opening Weekend and Tirreno-Adriatico, you can tell he’s in excellent shape. So, he’s going to be right there on Pogačar’s wheel and hard to shake off. If the pair come to the finish together, I find it highly unlikely that Pogačar can beat the two-time winner.
His only option is on the Poggio. Say a few riders get a gap, and you’re able to play some games in the final kilometres, things will start to get complicated. But for UAE Team Emirates-XRG, while they can win it on the Poggio, the work of his team – which are fractionally weaker than last year’s, given the absence of Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narváez – has to start on the Cipressa with an infernal pace that puts everybody in difficulty, not least Van der Poel and Filippo Ganna. If that works out for them, then on the Poggio, you try to finish off the riders who are still left clinging to their talisman’s wheel.
Of course, as I mentioned earlier, much of winning Milan-San Remo is how you feel in your mind and legs in the moment, and there could be a touch of hesitation and nerves with Pogačar. Van der Poel isn’t as desperate to win this race, nor is he necessarily in a position where he needs to attack on the final climb, because he knows the odds favour him in a reduced sprint situation. It’s the same reason why I wouldn’t be worried to see the Dutchman heavily…
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