Let’s face it, as things stand, there’s an overwhelming temptation to reduce the list of contenders to win next year’s Tour de France to a grand total of one, even though the 2026 route was only announced a matter of days ago.
Unlike the Tour de France Femmes, which has had a different winner every year since its revival in 2022, right now the odds on anybody being able to take on Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and beat him are not high.
As UAE team manager Joxean Fernández Matxin put it to Cyclingnews last June, 2025 was the first year since 2022 when neither Pogačar nor arch-rival Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) had had setbacks prior to the race, and even then, Pogačar was in a class of his own.
And yet, the options are always there. Even amongst cycling’s very greatest riders – and names like five-times Tour de France winners Eddy Merckx or Miguel Indurain spring to mind – the falls from grace have always been very sudden and unexpected. And as for all-conquering teams? Put it this way: in 2023, Visma-Lease a Bike won all three Grand Tours; in 2024, they didn’t win any.
So, for all the jokes about Pogačar’s seemingly extraterrestrial qualities (and Indurain endured lots of those as well), the truth is that nothing can be taken for granted over a three-week race, which is why a breakdown of who the favourites are for the 2026 Tour is more than just idle speculation. Just don’t be surprised by who’s at the top of the list.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
When the 2026 Tour de France route was revealed last week, it was said that the organisers had attempted to create a route that would keep Tadej Pogačar from killing off the interest too early. However, the brutal truth is that, as double Tour winner Bernard Thévenet recently told L’Équipe, Pogačar is 80% the current favourite. And assuming he remains as superior to his rivals and as versatile, that percentage is highly unlikely to drop between now and next summer.
The UAE leader doesn’t just have history in his favour, with second his worst result since his first ever Tour in 2020, and four wins out of a possible six in that period. His crushing and consistent domination in the high mountains over the last two years, no matter the race, instantly puts him head and shoulders above the rest as well. At 28, there’s no sign of Pogačar slowing down.
Then…
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