In this data-driven era of powermeters, Jonas Vingegaard’s brilliant wattage could never have stayed hidden under a bushel for long, but an element of providence still helped to fast-track his development from rider of promise to Tour de France champion.
Primož Roglič’s early crash at the 2021 Tour was cycling’s equivalent of the injury to Drew Bledsoe that suddenly thrust Tom Brady into the limelight for the New England Patriots two decades earlier. Vingegaard was unexpectedly asked to quarterback Jumbo-Visma though the rest of the Tour, but he proved up to the task, placing second overall to Tadej Pogačar in Paris.
Jumbo-Visma carried two leaders into the 2022 Tour, but more ill fortune for Roglič and further strides forward from Vingegaard would firmly establish the hierarchy by the midpoint of the race. On the Col du Granon, thanks in part to Roglič’s earlier onslaught on the Galibier, Vingegaard moved into the yellow jersey, which he never once looked like surrendering.
Ahead of the 2023 Tour, there will be no questions about the leadership depth chart. Just as the Patriots traded Bledsoe after he had served as back-up for Brady’s first Super Bowl win, Jumbo-Visma have opted against retaining Roglič as a safety net for the Tour, with the Slovenian instead deployed to lead at the Giro d’Italia.
That decision was surely informed by the nigh-on 70km of time trialling that features on the Giro route, but it also doubles as a considerable vote of confidence in Vingegaard and his ability to withstand the pressures of defending a Tour title. Even without Roglič, Jumbo-Visma will still have arguably the strongest team in the race, with Wout van Aert, Sepp Kuss and Steven Kruijswijk all featuring, but the responsibility of winning the Tour now rests on the shoulders of one man alone: Vingegaard.
It’s a cliché, of course, to say that retaining the Tour is more difficult than winning it, but there is a kernel of truth in the observation all the same. Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) has confessed to the malaise he felt after he had reached the top of the mountain in 2019, Vincenzo Nibali’s Tour defence of 2015 was troubled, and Chris Froome (Israel-Premier Tech), so implacable for much of his career, betrayed signs of unease even before he crashed out of the 2014 race.
When Vingegaard quietly exited stage left following his public acclamation in Copenhagen last summer, a narrative took hold that the Dane was burnt-out or perhaps even overwhelmed…
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